Quote of the day: Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. — Albert Einstein

EURUSD

Trading strategy: waiting for a break above 1.3700 to consider a long position

Support on the 61.8% of 1.3435-1.3735 at 1.3550 remains intact after the 2nd test but the euro’s recovery is limited, facing intra-day resistance around 1.3610. In case of a rally, 1.3690/00 is the key barrier to watch, as a short-term range breakout confirmation would be provided on a sustained break above the trend line coming from 1.3840. On the lower side, the rising trend line joining recent lows below $1.35 comes around 1.3490. Short-term sentiment remains bearish while below 1.3700. Current exchange rate is 1.3579 @07:15 GMT

Support:  1.3550, 1.3490/00 and 1.3440/50
Resistance: 1.3610, 1.3700, 1.3735/50, 1.3780 and 1.3840/60
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bearish, short term – slightly bearish, intra-day – neutral

NZDUSD

The falling trend line joining recent weekly peaks provided support on yesterday’s minor pullback to .6960 and the top side around .7060 is being challenged. Potential break above the said barrier should open .7130/50 and .7200 on first phase. Meanwhile, short-term bias suggests further gains as long as support around .6950 holds. Intra-day sentiment is bullish too, while immediate support around .7020 provides a stable bottom. Current exchange rate is .7044 @07:15 GMT

Support: .7000/20, .6950/60, .6900/15, .6850 and .6800
Resistance: .7060, .7130/50 and .7200
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – slightly bearish, short term – slightly bullish, intra-day – bullish

AUDCAD

Trading strategy: waiting for a potential break above .9425 within the coming days

There’s a potential setup developing on a short-term basis, as the falling trend line covering recent highs since November – now around .9425 – is in focus. A break above the said line (daily close above .9425) may favor extended gains up to .9600. Current exchange rate is .9399 @07:15 GMT

AUDJPY

Trading strategy: long at 82.60 on intra-day break above 82.50 (hourly bar/candle closed above 82.50), stop at 81.90 (1% risk), objective at 83.60

Resistance around 82.40 is still under pressure and yesterday’s fast recovery from 81.25 suggests that more upside action is likely. Keep an eye on the current region as a clear break may open 86.20 – January’s top. On the South side, a retreat below yesterday’s bottom would cancel the potential breakout scenario for now, even though short-term sentiment will remain positive while above 80.00. Current exchange rate is 82.37 @07:15 GMT

Have a great day!

I am an independent currency trader providing currency market analysis mainly for two reasons: 1. to improve my discipline, keeping a clear track record of my own thoughts, analyzing both my good and bad expectations on market moves; 2. sharing my thoughts with other traders, hoping they may benefit from my opinions and experience. I don't call myself a veteran or trading guru of some sort as there's a lot more I have to learn, a lot more I have to see and my 8 years experience into currency trading is not enough proof that I will be successful during the next 8 years. I dare to believe that my articles are useful to many traders from around the world and I strive to improve in my attempt to become a better and more accurate writer. innerfx.com is my own project, a blog about currency trading where I share my commentaries and market thoughts. The site has been launched to address the needs of other currency traders and also to keep a track record of my articles. I am not fully dedicated to currency trading because I want to diversify my knowledge, therefore I am involved in different areas such as IT&C.

Liviu has blogged 76 posts here.