The Trading Week: Mar. 22 – Mar. 26
With the EU Summit, scheduled for March 25-26, following a messy EU Finance Ministers meeting that has failed to provide concrete financial aid to Greece and has once again shaken investors’ confidence, the week ahead should unveil the next phase of the Greek debt drama and could prove crucial for the future fate of the Euro.
In preparation for the new trading week, here is a look at the most important economic events that every currency trader should pay attention to.
Monday, Mar. 22 will bring only two notable economic reports, beginning with the Swiss National Bank’s Quarterly Bulletin on economic conditions, inflation and monetary policy, at 6:00 am, ET.
As the Swiss Franc continues to push the Euro lower and the EUR/CHF currency pair has recently approached 2008 lows, traders will pay close attention to the SNB bulletin, and any statements from SNB officials that may follow it, for clues of the Swiss National Bank’s position on the strength of the Swiss Franc and signs of future currency market interventions by the SNB.
The light on economic data day will end with the Bank of Japan Meeting Minutes from the last monetary policy meeting that may provide an outlook on the economy and the bank’s future monetary policy, scheduled at 7:50 pm, ET.
Tuesday, Mar. 23 will start with the first spotlight event of the week- the U.K. CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation preferred by the Bank of England, at 5:30 am, ET, along with a leading indicator of the U.K. housing market- the British Bankers Association’s Mortgage Approvals Report, measuring the number of issued home loans, also at 5:30 am, ET.
Rising inflation and signs of housing market recovery in the U.K. have been some of the few fundamental factors that have been supportive for the British pound. Inflation in the U.K. in February rose above the Bank of England’s 3.00% ceiling to reach 3.5%, but consensus forecasts range from 3.1% to 3.4% as economists anticipate that Tuesday’s U.K. CPI report may show inflationary pressures subsiding a bit in the U.K.
Another notable report from the U.K. that morning will be the CBI- Confederation of British Industry Distributive Trades Survey of realized sales made by retailers and wholesalers, at 7:00 am, ET.
News from Canada will bring the Canadian Leading Indicators of economic activity, scheduled at 8:30 am, ET.
The U.S. economic data will begin with a spotlight event- the U.S. Existing Home Sales, the main gauge of the condition of the U.S. housing market measuring the number of closed sales of previously constructed homes, condominiums and co-ops, due at 10:00 am, ET.
Existing home sales declined in February to 5.05 M from 5.44 M in the previous month and the downward trend may extend in March, with consensus forecasts expecting another monthly decline to 5.0 M.
The U.S. economic reports will continue with the U.S. House Price Index of the price changes of homes with mortgages backed by Fannie May and Freddie Mac, at 10:00 am, ET, along with the Richmond Fed Index of manufacturing activity in the Richmond Federal Reserve district, also at 10:00 am, ET.
The New Zealand Current Account of goods, services and transfer of payments into and out of the country will be released at 5:45 pm, ET.
The day will end with a spotlight event- the Japanese Trade Balance of the difference between imported and exported goods and services, at 7:50 pm, ET. The report is expected to show lesser amount of trade surplus to 0.41 T Yen from 0.73 T in the previous month.
Wednesday, Mar. 24 will begin with the French and the German Manufacturing and Services PMI- Purchasing Manager’s Indexes, two leading indicators of economic conditions measuring the activity of purchasing managers in the manufacturing and service sectors, scheduled at 4:00 am, ET and 4:30 am, ET.
A spotlight event from the Euro-zone will bring the German IFO Institute Business Climate and Expectations Index, a leading indicator of economic conditions and business expectations in the Euro-zone’s largest economy, at 5:00 am, ET, along with the Euro-zone Manufacturing and Services PMI- Purchasing Manager’s Indexes, two leading indicators of economic conditions measuring the activity of purchasing managers in the manufacturing and service sectors, also at 5:00 am, ET.
The German IFO Survey may come a bit higher with a reading of 95.8 compared to 95.2 in the previous month, but the Euro-zone Composite PMI is expected to show a slight slowdown in economic activity to 53.6 from 53.7.
The European data will continue with the Euro-zone Industrial Orders, a leading indicator of manufacturing activity at 6:00 am, ET.
One of the main spotlight events of the week- the U.K. Government Annual Budget will be released at 8:30 am, ET. The report is expected to have a significant impact on the British pound, as any increase in U.K. Government spending would likely be perceived as negative, but budget and spending cuts could provide some support for the pound.
The U.S economic reports will begin with a spotlight event- the U.S. Durable Goods Orders, a leading indicator of economic activity, measuring orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods, at 8:30 am, ET. The orders for durable goods are expected to decline to 0.9% m/m from the 2.6% m/m increase in the previous month.
Another spotlight event will bring the U.S. New Home Sales, a gauge of housing market conditions measuring the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the previous month, at 10:00 am, ET, followed by the EIA- Energy Information Administration Weekly Oil Inventories, at 10:30 am, ET.
The new home sales in the U.S. registered much larger that anticipated moth-over-month decline of -11.2% in February, but they are expected to pick-up the pace in March to 316 K from 309 K.
The sequence of spotlight events will continue with the New Zealand GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth, at 5:45 pm, ET.
As a higher yielding commodity currency, the New Zealand dollar has proven attractive to investors in the current environment, and the GDP report may keep the Kiwi well bid on expectations of faster quarter-over-quarter economic growth of 0.8% in Q4 2009 from 0.2% in Q3 2009.
The busy day will conclude with the Japanese CSPI- Corporate Services Price Index, a measure of inflation experienced by corporations when purchasing services, at 7:50 pm, ET, and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Financial Stability report of the Australian financial system, at 8:30 pm, ET.
Thursday, Mar. 25 will mark the first day of the most important economic and geo-political event of the week- the EU Summit, a March 25-26 two-day meeting of European Union officials in Brussels, Belgium. The event could be pivotal for the Euro and the Euro-zone debt crisis, depending on whether the summit attendees agree to provide or continue to deny concrete financial aid to Greece, which is due to face debt obligations in April and May.
The morning economic reports will start with the German Gfk Group Consumer Climate Survey, an early indicator of current economic conditions and consumer expectations, at 3:00 am, ET. The GfK index of consumer sentiment is expected to decline to 3.1 from 3.2 in the previous month.
The U.K. Retail Sales, an important gauge of consumer spending, measuring the total sales at retail establishments, will follow at 5:30 am, ET. Retail sales in the U.K. dropped by 1.8% m/m in January but the February report could show an improvement, with consumer purchases expected to increase by 0.6% m/m.
The U.S economic data will begin with the weekly Jobless Claims, a gauge of labor market conditions measuring new unemployment claims, scheduled at 8:30 am, ET, and the EIA- Energy Information Administration Natural Gas Inventories, at 10:30 am, ET.
Another notable U.S. event that morning will be the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s Testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on the Federal Reserve’s plans for reducing the record amount of liquidity pumped into the financial system and the potential impact on the U.S. economic recovery.
Economic data from “down under” will bring the New Zealand Trade Balance of the difference between imported and exported goods and services, at 5:45 pm, ET, followed by the Australian Leading Indicators of economic activity, at 7:00 pm, ET.
The day will end with a spotlight event- the Japanese CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation, at 7:30 pm, ET. The consensus forecasts expect a reading of -1.2 % y/y and deflation could continue to pose serious threat to the Japanese economy, especially if the report shows core inflation falling below the previous level of -1.3% y/y.
Friday, Mar. 26 will begin with one of the major spotlight events of the week- the U.S. GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth in the world’s largest economy, at 8:30 am, ET.
Economic forecasts anticipate that the final reading of the U.S. Q4 2009 GDP could be slightly lower in a range between 5.7% and 5.9%, compared with last month’s estimate which showed the U.S. economy growing faster than expected by 5.9% in Q4 2009.
The busy trading week will end with the U.S. Consumer Sentiment, the University of Michigan’s monthly survey of 500 households on their financial conditions and outlook of the economy, scheduled at 9:55 am, ET. The index of consumer sentiment could inch higher to 73.1 from a previous estimate of 72.5.





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